In a new series of regular interviews, I’ll speak with two state lawmakers from El Paso County each week about what they think are the most significant happenings at the Capitol from each week, and we’ll also try to get a sense of what Statehouse-watchers can expect to see in the coming days. This week, I spoke to Sens. John Morse, a Democrat, and Kent Lambert, a Republican.
The Gazette: What’s the big news of the week? What’s happened?
Morse: The revenue resolution was the big thing of the week. The Republicans in the House took the normal revenue resolution, which chooses between the OSPB (Office of State Planning and Budgeting) forecast and the Legislative Council forecast — that’s really all this does — they took the lower of the two, which makes perfect sense, and then they lowered it by another 2.75 percent, which makes no sense at all. That reduces the revenue forecast by another $194 million, which would end up coming out of K-12 education. That’s just the reality. We’re going to cut everything else, and then everything that’s left is going to have to come out of K-12. We already have $1.1 billion to reconcile, if you will. I know we won’t cut $1.1 billion, but I’ll be we’ll cut $600 million to $800 million. But what they were doing was saying, “Instead of reconciling $1.1 billion, we want you to reconcile $1.3 billion.” And it’s like, “No. $1.1 billion is going to be plenty hard, and we’re already going to end up having to lay off, you know, some 6,500 school teachers throughout the state. Don’t force us to budget so that we’re going to lay off another 3,200 right off the budget. That’s just stupid.” And it’s real jobs, and it’s a real impact on the education of our kids.
So, they did this resolution that said, “Hey, we’re going to use this lower number, we’re going to lower it by 2.75 percent,” and we said, “Yeah, no, bring it back up to where it was. In fact, let’s commit right now that we will use anything over that for K-12 education to backfill the $300 million to $500 million in cuts they’re going to suffer no matter what.” And of course, the Republicans said, “Well, yeah, no.” Which I understand, but then they appointed a conference committee, which, all right, let’s go to conference committee and hash something out. And a little while before the conference committee, which was supposed to meet yesterday, the House just said, “You know what? Screw it. We’re not even going to do a conference committee. We’re just going to stick to our original position.” It’s like, “Well, your position is untenable.” So today, it died.
The Gazette: In the Senate.
Morse: Yeah. We’re going to stick to our position, too. We’re not going to let you arbitrarily budget to lay off 3,200 more teachers. You’ll do that over my dead body. If the forecast actually comes in in March, or if actual revenue comes in $200 million less, then you’re right. We’re going to have to lay off another 3,200 teachers. I get it, and I’ll do it, but not until I have to.
The Gazette: Is that a firm number? 6,500 teachers that are going to be laid off in the state?
Morse: Well, no, it’s not a firm number. That’s an estimate on my part, based on the fact that we have $1.1 billion that the budget is out of sync, and I think that means we’re going to have to cut $600 million to $800 million in real dollars, and I think that $300 million to $500 million will come from K-12. So what I’ve done is take $400 million, split the difference, divided it by a $60,000 average salary—which is high, but I’m being conservative deliberately—and you get like 6,600 teaching jobs, and I’m rounding that down to 6,500 teachers jobs. I mean, the budget—we’re going to have to make some god-awful cuts, and the Republicans are trying to set us up to make god-awful cuts on top of god-awful cuts.
The Gazette: And it’s definitely going to be teachers that are going to be laid off?
Morse: When I talk to superintendents from around the state, they tell me, “We’ve already done everything else. The next dollar you cut is coming out of the classroom.” And many districts around the state have already cut teachers, based on the cuts they’ve already had to endure. So you know, realistically, I mean, obviously, they’ll do everything they can to cut other things first, but they’ve already done that. So they’re basically down to teachers. You could actually more accurately say 6,500 school employees around the state, and again, is there still a little bit they can cut that’s not payroll-related? Maybe, but most of them tell me that their budgets are 85 percent personnel right now. And that other 15 percent is really probably fixed costs. I mean, how much can you pay on a utility bill?
The Gazette: What can voters expect to see next week that’s going to be significant?
Morse: Next week, I think you’ll see a series of bills introduced that will reconcile the current year budget to the actual monies that are coming in this year and what’s forecast right now to come in for the rest of this year, for the next four months, through June 30. We have a $266 million hole for the current year, which is on top of the $1.1 billion hole for next year. So next week we’ll actually be spending time in the Senate filling that $266 million hole. Interestingly, $10 million of that hole, we were going to fill by transferring some medical marijuana fee money and some secretary of state fee money to help us balance that $266 million balance, but those two ideas failed at the JBC. So we’re not using those. There are other cash transfers that we’re doing, and some cuts that we’re making as well, but I am happy that we’re not cutting K-12 right now, because it’s very difficult for school districts to cut their budgets once the budget year starts July 1. So we won’t be making cuts to K-12, in my opinion, over the next four months, but starting July 1, there will be substantial cuts. And I’m sure there will be discussions throughout the state of which schools will have to close, and perhaps even which school districts will have to merge.
The Gazette: Do you expect that El Paso County schools will be hit hard by the cuts?
Morse: Oh, yeah. There will be serious cuts to every school district in El Paso County, without question, because there will be serious cuts to every school district in Colorado.